Yearly Archives: 2017

305 – Feeling virtuous: what’s it worth?

We all like to feel good about ourselves. A product that makes us seem virtuous to others, or even to ourselves, would be worth paying more for than its strictly utilitarian value.

That was one of our hypotheses behind a surprising result in some recent research. We were trying to measure the benefits of installing a rainwater tank on an urban property in Perth. We did this by measuring the premium in house sale prices for houses that already had a rainwater tank installed, compared with similar houses that did not.

The results left us deeply puzzled. First, the price premium was enormous: around $18,000. Now the water in a typical tank, when full, is worth about $3, and a tanks lasts for about 15 years. That means that to use enough tank water to make the $18,000 price premium worth paying, you would you would have to use a full tank of water and refill it from rainfall about twice each day every day for the whole 15 years (assuming a 5% interest rate on your home loan). But that’s way beyond actual levels of rainwater use, and it doesn’t rain that much or that frequently in Perth anyway!

We were left scrambling for explanations for the high price premium. As I started off saying, an obvious one is the feel-good factor from knowing that one is contributing to water conservation. It could be a bit like organic food. Some of the price premium for that could reflect people’s concerns about environmental impacts of agricultural chemicals (as well as perceived health impacts).

Another possible explanation is that people may misjudge how much the water captured in the tanks is worth. Water from the tap really is most extraordinarily cheap, whereas the most common experience of paying for water for most people is bottled water, which is most extraordinarily expensive. So it would be understandable to some extent if people got this wrong. We cannot tell from the house sale data what is in peoples’ minds (e.g. about water cost), only the overall result.

A third explanation could be that our statistical analysis was faulty. If you look at the paper you’ll see that we tied ourselves in knots, testing the robustness of the stats in ways that are far beyond my own statistical skills (thanks co-authors), but we couldn’t make the result go away.

There was one more puzzle we couldn’t solve, as well. The price premium for rain tanks is far above the cost of installing a tank, so why doesn’t everybody with a house to sell invest in a rain tank? In fact only a small minority of houses sold do have them. I guess they aren’t aware of the potential price hike.

On the other hand, we don’t know what would happen to the premium if the proportion of houses with installed tanks was to increase substantially. It is likely that the greater supply of tanks would drive down the price premium to some extent.

Further reading

Zhang, F., Polyakov, M., Fogarty, J. and Pannell, D. (2015). The capitalized value of rainwater tanks in the property market of Perth, Australia, Journal of Hydrology 522, 317-325. Journal web site ♦ IDEAS page (includes link to freely downloadable version of the paper)

304 – Predicting behaviour change by farmers

I have a new paper out describing ADOPT, the Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool. We’ve paid the money to make it Open Access, so I hope you will make it worth our while having done that by going to the journal web site and downloading the paper for free.

There are many hundreds of research papers on the adoption of new practices by farmers. Pretty much all of them set out to explain the relative contributions of different factors to the past adoption or non-adoption of particular practices in particular regions. There are a bunch of review papers that try to make sense of the voluminous literature (including a beauty by Pannell et al. (2006)).

However, neither the original papers nor the reviews set out to address an issue that really matters to many people working in the agricultural sector, in research, extension, natural resource management, policy, sales, etc. That issue is the likely future adoption of a new practice that has not yet been adopted. An interdisciplinary group of us set out to fill this gap by developing ADOPT.

There are a large number of users of ADOPT – there have been over 1000 downloads of the tool, and many examples where it has been used effectively in planning or evaluation of research, extension or policy.

Now we have published this paper, which describes how we developed and validated the tool, how it is structured, and some example of its use.

You can download the paper for free here and you can download the ADOPT tool for free here. If you do it quickly, you’ll be one of the first to get a new update of the model, just released on June 29.

Also available now is Version 1.0 of the “Smallholder” version of ADOPT, designed for use in developing countries. Download it from the same web site here.

Also see http://www.ruralpracticechange.net for a set of videos on the topic of farmers adopting new practices.

References

Kuehne, G., Llewellyn, R., Pannell, D.J., Wilkinson, R., Dolling, P., Ouzman, J. and Ewing, M. (2017). Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: a tool for research, extension and policy, Agricultural Systems 156, 115-125. Journal web site for free download of the paper.

Pannell, D.J. and Vanclay, F.M. (eds) (2011). Changing Land Management: Adoption of New Practices by Rural Landholders, CSIRO Publishing, Canberra. Available at the publisher’s website.

Pannell, D.J., Marshall, G.R., Barr, N., Curtis, A., Vanclay, F. and Wilkinson, R. (2006). Understanding and promoting adoption of conservation practices by rural landholders. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 46(11): 1407-1424. Journal web site, or email David.Pannell@uwa.edu.au to ask for a copy.

 

303 – Postdoctoral Research Fellow position available

I was lucky enough to be part of a team that won a grant in the latest round of ARC Discovery grants. We’re looking for a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for the project.

The project is led by Eve McDonald Madden at the University of Queensland, and is called “Global extent of degraded farm lands and their conservation potential”. The brief summary from the funding proposal is as follow:

Globally the area of agricultural land is shrinking due to environmental degradation, market changes and social trends. In the last 15 years Australia has experienced a steep decline in total pasture lands. Restoration of degraded lands no longer used for agriculture may present a major conservation opportunity. Although expensive, restoring these areas should involve minimal social or political opposition and offer new economic opportunities and help mitigate climate change. This Project aims to map uncontested lands worldwide and assess their potential contribution to global conservation. The outcome will identify the extent and location of uncontested lands and provide a framework for deciding how best to invest in their regeneration.

I’m really looking forward to this project. I hadn’t really be aware of abandoned agricultural land until a visit to Estonia in 2006, when I saw some areas that were rapidly reverting from agriculture to forest. It turns out that there is quite a bit of this sort of thing around the world. For example, over the past 15 years, total global pasture area has declined by 62 million hectares, with only a small amount of this land being used for other agricultural purposes. It seems possible that these areas could contribute to nature conservation goals at low opportunity cost. That’s what we are going to explore, anyway.

It’s a terrific research team. Eve is just wonderful, and we’ve also got Richard Hobbs (from UWA) and Eddie Game (from The Nature Conservancy).

The job details are here: http://jobs.uq.edu.au/caw/en/job/500343/postdoctoral-research-fellow

Applicants should possess a PhD in the area of remote sensing, GIS, economics, ecology modelling or a closely related discipline.

302 – India impressions

In February I spent two weeks on holiday in the north of India, visiting Delhi, Agra, Jaipur and Jodhpur. For many years, I had been reluctant to go there, afraid of being overwhelmed by the culture shock and the poverty. In the end, there was plenty of both, but perhaps less than I expected, and I really enjoyed the visit.

Here are some quick impressions about some of the main things that stood out to me.

Poverty and prosperity

There is plenty of evidence that India is developing rapidly. Between 1980 and 2014 its Human Development Index increased by 68 percent, and its Gross National Income per capita (in constant dollar terms) increased from $1255 to $5497. Their economy is continuing to grow rapidly: at 7.6% (real) in 2016.

Still, there are many people doing it very tough – e.g. sleeping under overpasses or in train stations. There was more begging on the street or at traffic lights than I had previously encountered elsewhere.

On the other hand, there was less of that than I expected. We were able to give to many of the beggars we encountered without feeling like it was overwhelming.

The huge majority of people look like they are doing OK. And there are plenty of people who are clearly doing very well indeed.

Traffic and crowds

The population of India is 1.27 billion, and it’s growing at 1.19% (15 million people) per year. It will overtake China as the world’s most populous country in about 2022.

Sometimes in Delhi it feels like they are all on the streets! Indian traffic is like nothing else I’ve ever encountered. Countless millions of cars, tuk tuks, motorbikes, trishaws, and sometimes buses and trucks. Not to mention cows and pedestrians.

The congestion is absolutely terrible of course, but just as remarkable is the way the traffic works. It feels like one is in a school of fish rather than a flow of traffic. Lanes are completely ignored. One moves forward into any available gap, seemingly no matter how narrow it is. When roads intersect, the cars just sort of inter-mesh and weave their ways through. You can’t wait for a break in the traffic before you cross, because there will never be one. I never got used to the alarming way that our drivers turned left onto roads or into roundabouts – they just drive on, seemingly without even looking whether there is room for them. The traffic just has to make room.

People are also quite relaxed about driving into oncoming traffic if doing so would be convenient. Our own drivers did it several times, and we once encountered a large truck coming straight at us in our lane: the inside lane of a dual carriageway road! Pauline screamed, but our driver was quite unruffled. He just shuffled to the left as if it wasn’t surprising. Because it wasn’t.

Apart from the traffic, it can be pretty crowded for people as well. Walking through the market area in Old Delhi it sometimes seemed about as crowded as being inside a bus in peak hour in Perth, but we were in the open.

Crowding was most intense inside some of the vehicles. I was part of a group of three, and we felt quite packed in in the back of a tuk tuk, but I saw plenty of tuk tuks with about eight passengers and one that surely had more than 10. It was common to see three passengers in the front with the driver, and he only has a single seat. One person would often be sitting under the driver, the other two teetering on a few inches of seat on each side.

On the other hand, we did manage to find plenty of relatively uncrowded places too, particularly some nice parks. The crowds are intense but not continuous.

Animals in the street

I’ve never seen so many different types of animals in urban areas: cows (of course), dogs, camels, horses, donkeys and monkeys are commonplace, and in Jaipur there are elephants. I witnessed a pitched battle between rival monkey gangs near the Taj Mahal.

 Environment

Delhi is famous for its poor air quality. According to the World Health Organisation, Delhi has the worst air quality of any major city in the world.  I had previously visited Beijing and experienced its appalling air quality, but Delhi is 43% worse (in terms of fine particles, which are the most damaging to health).

Fortunately it wasn’t too terrible while we were there, but on average air pollution kills about 1.5 million Indians per year – their fifth highest cause of death.  There is increasing awareness of the problem, but they’ve got a long way to go. For example, burning rubbish (including plastics) in the streets is still common.

The other local environmental issue that stood out was garbage in the streets. Particularly in Delhi and Agra, the garbage situation is absolutely woeful. Jaipur and Jodhpur were much better, apparently due to official efforts to raise awareness and clean things up. They are also much better for air pollution. Hopefully, rising incomes will result in people in other cities wanting to follow the examples of those two.

With so many people to fit in, you have to go looking for relatively natural areas. We went to Keoladeo National Park south of Agra, and it was absolutely fantastic. The range of birds, especially water birds, was just amazing, and there are plenty of other animals as well. We saw jackals, mongooses, deer, antelopes and bats. Highly recommended.

Selling

I’m completely hopeless at haggling. When buying small items, my heart is not in it, because fundamentally I am quite happy not to pay the lowest possible price, on the basis that it is still cheaper than I’d be happy to pay in Australia, and these people need the money more than I do. Add to that the fact that Indian sellers are masterful and incredibly persistent persuaders, and you can see the risks I faced. Oh well, it was an experience. I’ve always wanted 12 crudely hand painted plastic elephant key rings.

Food

I love Indian food. There were lots of great dishes you never see at an Indian restaurant in Australia.

Health

I used to always get really sick in developing countries, but over time I’ve developed a relatively effective strategy: carry hand wash and use it regularly, be cautious when choosing where to eat, and take Travelan before each meal. (And of course only drink bottled water.) I’ve now used this approach in Indonesia, Vietnam and India without getting a single serious stomach problem. In India I added another element to the strategy: only eat cooked vegetarian food. This was no hardship at all, given how good their vege food is.

Crime

We read a bunch of horror stories about the dangers before we went there, but never felt in any danger (apart from on the roads). Our guides warned us a lot about pickpockets, but we kept our valuables in pickpocket-proof bags, with metal reinforcing, so felt safe.

Overall, it was a great experience. Despite the various challenges, I’m really glad I went.